Election 2023 analysis: Can Chris Hipkins and Labour recover from devastating Newshub-Reid Research poll?

ANALYSIS: Waking up on Tuesday morning would have been pretty tough for Labour leader Chris Hipkins. 

Monday night's news delivered a severe blow to his party, yet he still had to get up early, put a smile on his face and face another day of campaigning. 

It's relentless on the election trail.  

There's usually a new town or city every day. You're living out of a suitcase. You're away from family. And you're being meticulously followed and watched by journalists, advisors and security at every turn. 

So, the Labour leader would have been lying in bed on Tuesday morning with doubts and questions going around his head: Am I the right person for the job? Have I been doing enough? What do I need to change? Do I even want this? 

When you're knocked down time and time again by the polls, it's hard to pick yourself up and get on with the job. 

Yet that's what Hipkins had to do on Tuesday morning and what he'll have to do every single day for the next five weeks. 

There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before polling day. There's more policy to announce, more time for the Opposition to trip up and, importantly for Hipkins, there are debates. 

Hipkins is a solid debater.  

He eats Luxon alive in the debating chamber. He and his team will be looking forward to the televised debates where his strengths and graft will be on display against someone whose natural place is not behind a lectern. 

But solid debate performances won't save Hipkins' downward slide with the electorate. He needs to up his game on the campaign trail. 

While he's filling his days with plenty of visits and meetings, it feels like he's holding something back; personality, excitement, interest, or curiosity. In other words, it doesn't feel like he's enjoying it. 

When he's meeting people, he seems bored or disengaged. He struggles with small talk.  

The small fleeting interactions with people are opportunities for votes but so often they are lost. 

That could just be his own style but it comes across like he doesn't want to be there, like he's not hungry enough to fight for the reins of power. 

It also comes across like he feels the election is fait accompli. 

A poll result of 26.8 percent is bad. It's really bad.  

Hipkins needs to prove he's not a quitter. He needs to use the poll results as a motivator, as a challenge and fight every single minute, even if he hates it. 

Even if he's resigned himself to losing the Government benches, he at least needs to save the party furniture. 

Lloyd Burr is a Newshub political reporter.