Analysis: If last night's TVNZ Leaders' Debate showed viewers anything, it's that the next government will be heavily influenced not by its major party, but its coalition partners. Now, the latest 1News Verian poll reveals voters want major parties to be upfront about who they will work with - but it's a complicated political dance, writes 1News political reporter Felix Desmarais.
The results are in - voters want the major parties to be upfront with who they will - and won't - work with after the election.
While voters are relatively clear on where Labour stands, the thundering question remains - will National work with New Zealand First?
The pressure is now mounting on Christopher Luxon to make that clear to voters, with the second 1News Verian poll in a row to show comeback king Winston Peters appears on-track to make yet another return to Parliament.
Today's poll also asked 1001 eligible voters if political parties should be upfront about coalition agreements prior to the election.
Of those polled, 82% said yes, 10% said no and 8% didn't know or refused to answer.
Women aged 18 to 54 were more likely to say yes, as were people with a household income between about $70,000 and $100,000.
Men aged 55 and older and all aged 70 and over were more likely to say no.
Today, Labour leader Chris Hipkins said he believed parties should be transparent about who they would work with after the election.
Hipkins has previously indicated his willingness to work with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, and ruled out working with New Zealand First.
"I made it very clear, I wouldn't work with [ACT leader] David Seymour and [New Zealand First leader] Winston Peters, that would be chaotic," he said today.
A union between ACT and Labour would indeed strike most as unusual. The most awkward and unexpected of bedfellows, even.
Despite ACT finding its origins with many former Labour members, the two tend to have diametrically opposed policies, particularly on the economic spectrum.
Asked why he believed Luxon hadn't yet been clear on all of the parties he would and wouldn't work with, Hipkins said Luxon was "desperate to cobble together any kind of government at any cost".
Luxon has been under pressure to reveal whether he would work with New Zealand First. This is likely because National does not want to supply New Zealand First with any oxygen lest it boost the electoral fortunes of Peters' party at the cost of National. At the same time, he's likely reluctant to rule Peters out in case National needs his numbers to form a government.
Hipkins said he believed New Zealand deserved "better than that".
Meanwhile, National leader Christopher Luxon said his "preference" was to work with the ACT Party.
"I think we've worked well in the past, before. David Seymour and I have a good personal relationship and importantly, we're aligned on the outcomes. We might be slightly different on how we'd go about delivering those, but we'll be able to work that out in a very sensible way."
Luxon has previously batted away questions about working with New Zealand First when it was polling below 5%, saying it wasn't a current parliamentary party and would not be back in Parliament.
However, with the party now reaching 5% in two 1News polls in a row, Luxon was asked if he needed to clarify his stance on New Zealand First with voters.
"I think it just underscores to everybody that if you want a guaranteed change of government, you have to party vote National.
"This is a really important election and what we want is a strong and stable government on the other side."
So far, still vague.
'A bit of frustration'
Former MP Peter Dunne, as leader of the now de-registered party United Future, formed post-election deals with the Helen Clark-led Labour government in 2002 and 2005, and the John Key-led National government in 2008, 2011 and 2014.
Dunne told 1News he believed people did expect parties to "state their preferences" before elections.
"They may not state them explicitly but [voters] need to know, more likely than not, these groups of parties can work together, these groups can't.
"There's a bit of frustration at the moment that they don't have a clear answer on that."
Dunne said he believed Luxon was trying to "keep all the cards close to his chest".
"The problem with that is that I don't think he does want to work with New Zealand First but the more he refuses to rule them out, the more - it seems to me - he increases the possibility New Zealand First will be there and he may have to do a deal with them."
Dunne said Luxon may be concerned votes could also haemorrhage from preferred coalition partners ACT to New Zealand First.
He said in his view every party that had worked with New Zealand First had "come unstuck in the end".
"That's a factor that National would have to take into account: Is this a long term arrangement, is it a temporary one, and what are the political costs of doing so?"
Dunne is likely correct on the complex political calculations Luxon is grappling with. MMP can make for a difficult dance - Luxon is wary to not put a foot wrong and end up in a pickle on October 15.
Luxon is a man determined to change the government and become the prime minister - if he absolutely needs New Zealand First to do so, he may well consider it worth it.
That's despite warnings from people like Dunne and Hipkins that, in their view, New Zealand First can be a destablising force on a government. Of course Peters would likely argue his party is actually a "common-sense" force.
With three and a half weeks to go, calls for clarity on National's possible coalition partners will only get louder. It's fair enough New Zealanders want to know what their government may look and feel like after October 14.
And if New Zealand First remain strong in the polls, it will become more difficult for Luxon to dance around the answer.
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