Numbers behind National's tax policy 'a bit murky' - economist

August 31, 2023

The Council of Trade Unions' Craig Renney said the proposal had a "safety valve" of further cuts to public services.

The numbers behind the National Party's tax policy are "a bit murky", an economist has said.

National have pitched the plan as "help on the way" for the "squeezed middle". Under the scheme, a large number of Kiwis would receive a financial boost through tax relief from July 1 next year.

For example, National leader Christopher Luxon said a family with children, on the average household income of $120,000, would be up to $250 a fortnight better off under the party's tax relief plan.

It would cost $14.6 billion over four years and be funded by four tax changes, along with other "reprioritisations" and "savings".

Asked about the numbers behind the plan, the Council of Trade Unions' Craig Renney told Breakfast: "A bit like the Auckland weather this morning, it's a bit murky, and there are certainly more questions to ask.

"Three billion from foreign buyers, it's not clear where that money is actually coming from."

One of the four tax changes proposed would see the foreign buyers ban lifted, with National forecasting $740 million on average per year from introducing a 15% foreign buyer tax on purchase of houses worth over $2 million.

"The average cost would be $350,000 per unit of housing," Renney said.

However, Labour is dismissing the fantasy plan.

"If you've got $350,000 to pay a tax, you can afford to pay an accountant to not pay the tax."

He also expressed doubt in National's plan to close a tax loophole and ensure offshore operators delivering online gambling to New Zealanders pay tax: "There are many questions to ask about that.

"That's before we get into the value of the tax cuts for many New Zealanders."

Renney described the plan as "taking with one hand and giving with the other".

National have pitched the plan as "help on the way" for the "squeezed middle".

"They can make it work because of the safety valve within the system of further cuts to public services.

"Both parties [National and Labour] really aren't announcing enormous change in tax policies," he added.

Nicola Willis hits back

"We're confident that our modelling stacks up," the party's deputy leader and finance spokesperson said.

National's deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis responded to Renney's claims on Breakfast.

"Can I just point out that Craig Renney, who you've just had on; his immediate prior job to the one he has now was advising Grant Robertson," she said. "And the CTU, who he works for, yesterday put up attack ads about the National Party.

"I think it's important your viewers understand which corner he's coming from."

Willis said the foreign buyers component of the policy had been tested "very carefully".

"We did seek independent legal advice to assure ourselves that we could do this consistent with all of our free trade agreements. We can," she said. "Then what we did, we modelled how many houses we thought would be purchased at this price range.

"We're confident that our modelling stacks up. It's cautious, it's conservative."

Half-price transport for under-25s would also be on the chopping block under National's tax plan.

The assumptions in the modelling were then independently verified as well, Willis added.

"I understand that around one in eight properties in Auckland are over the $2 million mark at the moment and that's the basis on which we've done the modelling," she said, pushing back on suggestions the plan would add pressure to the housing market.

"This is a very small slice of the overall [nationwide] housing market.

"But that luxury market does exist," she stressed.

"We are confident that those purchases will take place and that they will generate revenue that we can then use to put tax break money in the pay checks of working people who are doing it really tough.

"This is very much the top end of the market, this isn't the part of the market where everyday New Zealanders are buying homes."

SHARE ME

More Stories