The putsch in Niger is yet another blow to the French military strategy, which multiple coups have sorely tested in the Sahel. One year after the departure of the last soldiers of France's operation Barkhane from Mali, and six months after the withdrawal of French special forces from Burkina Faso, at the request of a new military government, the Nigerian pronunciamiento casts a shadow over the future of Paris's military presence in the region.
Nearly 1,500 French military personnel are in Niger, mainly at the Niamey air base. French forces in the Sahel are on the front line, along with the 1,000 men deployed in neighboring Chad, fighting Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb jihadist groups alongside local armies.
Since General Tiani took power in Niger on July 26, all counter-terrorism operations carried out by the French, who are under the command of the Nigerien General Staff, have been suspended.
For the time being, however, the evacuation of the soldiers is "not at all on the agenda," according to the General Staff. Paris, which had bet on Niger to redeploy some of its troops based in Mali and Burkina Faso and had thus signed an agreement with the regime of deposed Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, considers the arrangement "remains valid since we recognize no authority other than his," the foreign ministry said. The United States has around 1,000 troops deployed in Niger and is taking a similar approach. Military cooperation activities have been "suspended," said a Pentagon spokesman, but there are no plans for the departure of US soldiers.
Highly volatile situation
For how much longer? Following the Mali and Burkina Faso coups, the juntas in place were quick to denounce defense agreements governing French military presence in their countries. While the putschists in Niger have not yet requested French soldiers to leave, their criticism of France, accused of preparing a military operation in Niger to restore Bazoum to office, sets the tone. Paris knows the situation is highly volatile and fears repeating history.
Niger is the largest African country in terms of French troops – some 5,650 are deployed across the continent – alongside Djibouti, which also has a presence of almost 1,500. It was in September 2010 that the country first authorized France to use its airspace and territory to position forces, following the kidnapping by Al-Qaeda of five French nationals working at Areva's uranium mine in Arlit in the north of the country. The French army chose Niger after Mali refused to allow it to track down the jihadist kidnappers from its soil.
In Niamey, Paris subsequently set up a fully-fledged air base capable of accommodating several hundred soldiers, starting in 2013, as part of the Serval operation, which became Barkhane the following year. This base was equipped with state-of-the-art equipment, including fighter aircraft, combat helicopters, and drones, the first to be armed with bombs to strike more effectively at jihadist groups. More than ten years after the start of the war in northern Mali, the jihadists continue to extend their hold in West Africa. They could take advantage of this latest political destabilization in Niger to further accelerate their expansion.
