Election 2023 explainer: Labour's record on the economy and what National wants to achieve

Whichever party is elected to power on October 14 will have the gruelling job of guiding New Zealand out of a cost of living crisis that has plagued the country for nearly two years. 

Household finances are under strain and prices continue to soar, presenting a big challenge for Chris Hipkins' Labour Party - the incumbent Government - which is seeking a third term in power.

Here are the key milestones of Labour's time managing the economy since 2020.

COVID-19

Labour oversaw a $61.6 billion COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund, introduced in Budget 2020 "as a temporary fiscal management tool to support New Zealand's response to and recovery" from the pandemic. 

After being reelected in 2020, it also managed the widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines - aimed at limiting the spread of the virus and allowing the economy to reopen. 

But Labour was criticised on one side for letting COVID-19 lockdowns carry on too long and by others for prioritising the economy over health.

At the end of 2021, then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was urged to confirm a date for the removal of the Auckland border after the super city - which was the epi-centre of New Zealand's COVID-19 outbreak - was shut off from the rest of the country.

The border was lifted in December of that year and the COVID-19 protection framework or 'traffic light system' was implemented, during which freedoms were determined by vaccine certificates.

In September last year, the Government scrapped the traffic light system and faced accusations from the Green Party of having "given up" its pandemic response.

Inflation and employment

Labour ran on a promise in 2020 to help recover New Zealand's economy by creating jobs, supporting small businesses and managing the Government's books responsibly. 

Under Labour, unemployment hit lows not seen since the 1980s - falling from 4.1 percent before the pandemic to its lowest point of 3.2 percent last year.

But New Zealanders also saw a massive leap in consumer prices, driven in part by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war compounding supply chain problems. The Opposition has repeatedly said Government spending under Labour has also driven inflation higher. 

The inflation surge forced the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to quickly hike interest rates, sparking a recession earlier this year. 

In some welcome news for the Government, June's consumer price index data showed inflation dropping and food price growth starting to slow. Rents, however, were still up 9 percent year on year, according to Trade Me data from July.   

Whichever party is elected to power may have worse cards next year, with unemployment expected to rise as GDP continues slowing and interest rates remain high. 

Ipsos polling showed Kiwis saw inflation and the cost of living as the top issue facing New Zealand. 

Housing

New Zealand's housing crisis has created policy headaches for successive Governments, and it's set to be another hot election topic.

While sky-high pandemic property prices have peaked and are on the way down, many first-home buyers are still locked out of the market.

To help with this, Labour launched the progressive home ownership scheme in 2020 - allowing charities that assist lower-income renting households to become homeowners through shared ownership schemes to access funding.

On top of that, Labour has also made changes to the First Home Grant and Loan - most recently increasing the price caps for the loan and scrapping them for the grant.

As of July, however, first-home buyer numbers were at their lowest since 2017 - suggesting high prices were still a major barrier to ownership.  

CoreLogic figures from the quarter to August showed average New Zealand households spent nearly half of their income on mortgages. 

The Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor Survey from May suggested housing was the third-largest matter of concern for Kiwis.

According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, the country's median house price was $770,000 as of July 31 - down from its 2021 peak of $925,000 but still over $200,000 more than when Labour first came to power. 

There's a political consensus that New Zealand needed to build more homes to meet demand. Labour notes it's built 13,000 public houses since first elected, and said it's "on track to deliver over 18,000 new public and transitional housing places by 2024". That's a target National has said it would also commit to if elected.

However, that target came on the back of Labour's failed KiwiBuild policy - a programme promising 100,000 houses in a decade that subsequently flopped and was reset. 

House.
Photo credit: Getty Images

PM-hopeful, National leader wants to realise NZ's potential

Opposition leader Christopher Luxon, should he be elected Prime Minister on October 14, wants to get "New Zealand back on track" - namely the economy.

Based on an August Newshub-Reid Research poll, Luxon's National would win October's election with a six-seat lead if it formed a coalition with fellow right-bloc party ACT, over the leftist Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori parties. 

But it's still a tight margin and other polls have suggested National and ACT could fall short of the 63-seat threshold needed to govern, which could bring the veteran New Zealand First leader and former deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters into the fold - should he receive the 5 percent of the vote needed to enter Parliament.

Nonetheless, Luxon, who is rather new to politics - having been chief executive of Air New Zealand from 2012 until 2019 before joining National in 2021 - is running on his relative inexperience as a politician and experience as a businessman as a way of breathing fresh air into the Beehive.

Luxon's rapid rise to the Opposition leadership last year came on the back of some tumultuous years for the National Party, during which it was criticised for having little vision and few plans to take New Zealand forward.

Fast-forward to the election campaign, Luxon wants to win the battle on the economy by touting National as the best party to get New Zealand out of the cost of living crisis.

"New Zealand should be a country where if you work hard, you can get ahead," he said in late August when announcing National's tax cuts policy

Luxon has said only a National-led Government can implement the necessary tools to get the country's economy progressing again.

Under National, if the party wins the election, the Reserve Bank would be solely focused on inflation; interest deductibility would be restored to rental properties; Fair Pay Agreement legislation would be scrapped and income relief would be provided to taxpayers through a combination of new revenue streams and restoring "discipline to Government spending". 

Luxon has said indexing tax thresholds to inflation was a top priority if National wins, along with improving the health and education systems through spending "taxpayers' money as effectively and efficiently as possible".

Accelerating growth and getting New Zealand back on a steady fiscal path won't be easy for any Government. The country is expected to see stagnant year-on-year growth by the end of this year, based on Reserve Bank forecasts

Nonetheless, Luxon believed a National Government turn around "rampant inflation, huge increases in interest rates and a shrinking economy".

"National will restore discipline to Government spending, remove red tape on businesses, build the infrastructure needed to support growth… and deliver the education and skills needed to support a growing economy."

Christopher Luxon.
Christopher Luxon. Photo credit: Getty Images

Hipkins' vision 

Earlier this week, Hipkins said he believed New Zealand was "bursting with opportunity and talent".

The Labour leader's speech at the Bloomberg address on Wednesday laying out his "priorities and vision for our future" came amid repeated Opposition criticism against the incumbent Government's handling of the economy, with National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis pointing to the country's recession, cost of living and weak GDP.

Hipkins' speech came ahead of the pre-election fiscal update, due to be released on Tuesday. ANZ economists have predicted the Government's books would likely be "in a much weaker position than forecast at Budget in May". 

Hipkins was well aware it was currently "tough" for many businesses but said he was "confident there are better days ahead". He pointed to China's economic downturn as being a major contributing factor to New Zealand's current financial situation.

"Now I could spend the rest of my time with you today dissecting the state of the economy," Hipkins said. "But instead of looking back, I want to look forward."

The Labour leader cited the "existing" economic strengths New Zealand had: "My vision is for a smart, modern and green economy that trades on our brand and natural offering as well as our leadership on climate.

"My vision is for New Zealand to be the best and most successful little country in the world and I believe we can be," he said.

"In my view, New Zealand succeeds when business is doing well and the reward of that success flows on to workers as well as the owners."

He argued he was "the first Prime Minister in a while that has had such a strong focus on skills".

"Creating hope and opportunities for our young is the best thing we can do to ensure they steer clear of a life of crime," the incumbent PM said. "I hope you will have seen from me a commitment to invest in the long-term infrastructure needs of our country."

Hipkins told the audience he hadn't shied away from long-term projects that would unlock economic gains for New Zealand.

"The Government has made record investments in our roads, schools and hospitals," he said. "A Government I lead will continue to invest in world-class public services and infrastructure."