National and ACT remain on track to form a government after the election according to the latest 1News Verian poll, although the margin remains slim after the two main parties dipped slightly.
The poll has National on 37%, down 2%, and Labour on 27%, down 1%.
The difference appears to have been picked up by the minor parties, with ACT and the Greens both on 12%, up 2% each. New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori are steady on 5% and 3% respectively.
For the second poll in a row, one party looks set to return to Parliament, over the 5% party vote threshold.
It means the right bloc - National and ACT - would have a total of 61 seats in Parliament, just enough to form a government. Should it include New Zealand First's seats - which National leader Christopher Luxon has remained consistently tight-lipped on - it would total 67 seats.
The left bloc falls well short of the numbers required to form a government, with Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori's seats totalling 53.
It's the second 1News Verian poll in a row that suggests New Zealand First may be on a course to return to Parliament after its election disaster in 2020, where it received just 2.6% of the party vote, after receiving 7.2% in the 2017 election.
The don't know/refused to answer response was 12%, which - while an increase on last week's poll - was mostly consistent with all seven 1News polls this year.
Last week's poll showed Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 51 seats, National and ACT on 62 seats and New Zealand First with seven seats.
The seat calculations assume Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi retains the Waiariki electorate.
Tonight's poll, which canvassed 1001 eligible voters between September 16 and 19, also revealed New Zealanders' apparent preference for National does not translate to a preference for its leader Christopher Luxon, with Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins both on 23%. That result was steady from last week's poll.
The poll preceded last night's TVNZ First Leaders' Debate. The two leaders will face each other again in the second TVNZ leaders' debate on October 12, just two days before polling day on October 14.
ACT leader David Seymour was the preferred prime minister for 5% of those polled, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was preferred by 4%, and National deputy leader Nicola Willis and Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick were both on 2%, both up 1%.
During the poll period, New Zealand First announced its list, Labour pledged to raise wages in health and education, and the Greens floated five weeks of annual leave. ACT held its campaign launch, and National's Hamilton East candidate Ryan Hamilton was revealed to have expressed anti-fluoride views, in conflict with the party's view.
Labour list candidate Deborah Rhodes was also revealed to have expressed anti-HPV vaccine views, calling it "f...ing poison". Both Hamilton and Rhodes said they no longer held those views.
Party vote
National – 37% (down 2%)
Labour – 27% (down 1%)
ACT – 12% (up 2%)
Greens – 12% (up 2%)
New Zealand First – 5% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 3% (steady)
The Opportunities Party – 1% (steady)
New Zealand Loyal – 1% (up 1%)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (up 1%)
Don't know / refused to say 12% (up 2%)
Seats in the house
(Calculation assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate.)
National – 46
Labour – 34
ACT - 15
Green – 15
New Zealand First – 6
Te Pāti Māori – 4
Preferred prime minister
Chris Hipkins – 23% (steady)
Christopher Luxon – 23% (steady)
David Seymour – 5% (steady)
Winston Peters – 4% (steady)
Nicola Willis 2% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 2% (up 1%)
See the full poll results and methodology here
Between September 16 and September 19 2023, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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