Welcome to The Key!
At some point in the last six weeks I’ve talked with you about receiving this newsletter, and now here we all are — candidates, campaign staff, consultants, speechwriters, social scientists, journalists, authors, and friends. I’m glad you’re here!
I quit my job at Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post in 2018 and started a private newsletter for Democratic campaigns, because it was a dark time and, like a lot of Americans, I wanted to get out there and start saving our country.
So I created an earlier form of The Key, and the reason was to turn Democrats on to a different way of understanding what politics is. In 2018, 2020 and 2022, this was a more hopeful endeavor than I think it is today. Right now, in February 2024, the warning lights are blinking in our faces. It’s all anybody’s talking about.
But Josh, you may be saying, Democrats are doing pretty well! We didn’t lose 2022 very badly! Biden is killing it! We passed bills! Trump is old too! Polls are always wrong!
Okay, sure. Maybe you’re right.
But how willing are we to be wrong, when the result will be one-party rule over America for the next 20 or 30 years? How willing are we to stumble blindly into another 2016? Let me put it this way — I’m more scared than that. Aren’t you?
• Two times somebody wanted to build something
As an example of why we're here, let's look at two cases.
Case 1: In July 2020, the Biden campaign rolled out its domestic program under the name Build Back Better. I couldn’t find any account of where this name came from, or reach anyone who could tell me, but based on other cases we know how this kind of slogan gets developed. The comms people get together on a Zoom call (it was 2020) and put some ideas on a whiteboard: Recovery For America, Stronger Strength Through Strongness, and Build Back Better. Those get sent to focus groups, where people rap about them for a while:
“ ‘Recovery’ makes me think of drugs.”
”Yeah, or a hospital bed.”
”Um, do you think of anything else besides —”
”And my dad was in the hospital in April. He almost died.”
”Okay, let’s move on from that one. How about ‘Build Back Better’?”
” ‘Build Back Bigger’ is okay.”
”No, it's ‘Build Back Better.’ ”
”Yeah, right, ‘Build Bigger Better.’ ”
And they decide to go with that one because nobody hated it.
This is unlike Donald Trump’s process.
Case 2: This is the story of “Build The Wall!” which gave us “Lock Her Up!” which gave us “Send Them Back!” which gave us “Stop The Steal!”
One day in 2015, Donald Trump came down a golden escalator. (Which, by the way, as often as we make reference to that, is not a grand way to make an entrance.) And before the assembled cub reporters and paid extras, he vowed to make America great and called Mexicans rapists, setting the tone for his now-famous campaign rallies.
Inside the Trump campaign, advisers wanted to keep the notoriously unfocused, unscriptable candidate focused on his golden ticket, the message of protecting good Americans from the foreign horde, so they condensed it into “a mnemonic device of sorts.”
“How do we get him to continue to talk about immigration?” Sam Nunberg, one of Mr. Trump’s early political advisers, recalled telling Roger J. Stone Jr., another adviser. “We’re going to get him to talk about he’s going to build a wall.”
Talk Mr. Trump did, and the line drew rapturous cheers from conservative audiences, thrilling the candidate and soon becoming a staple of campaign speeches. Chants of “Build the wall!” echoed through arenas throughout the country.
How the Border Wall Is Boxing Trump In
New York Times, Jan. 5, 2019
What do we learn from this? Build Back Better — the closest thing Biden has to a slogan — served its purpose, which was not to excite voters but to convey a sense that a recovery program was in the works and to organize support for it. Nobody shouted it at a rally, though.
Build Back Better is coolly programmatic; Build The Wall is potently symbolic. Build Back Better was market-tested in (virtual) conference rooms over cold pizza; Build The Wall was live-tested in arenas full of rabid supporters over hot lava. Build Back Better is a legislative agenda; Build The Wall is a battle cry.
• Let's build ourselves back better
There is a key to understanding how we got here, and how we get out, and I'll tell it to you in one sentence as clearly as I can: Democrats run an intellectual campaign to voters who are emotional creatures. This is something that America's least smart man, Donald Trump, has figured out and Democrats haven't.
But it's not too late to get this right.
How? In one sentence: Instead of running an intellectual campaign, we need to use our intellect to create an emotional campaign.
That's what we’ll be talking about over the coming months — understanding how to reach the voter emotionally. Cognitive psychology, social psychology, sociology, anthropology and political science are full of insights about how people behave emotionally. In fact, academic social scientists have been jumping up and down with their hair on fire and shouting at us to change what we’re doing —
— but unfortunately, their way of jumping up and down and shouting is to publish articles in journals that are read by their colleagues. We need to pay attention too. The social sciences are trying to tell us something.
Here’s how we’re not going to win: By appearing smart. By having the best plans. By explaining policy details. By conceding to our opponents. By being timid. By being bland.
Here’s how we can win: By building bonds. By speaking people’s language. By showing character. By surprising and exciting people. By being vivid. By creating a vibe. By showing up. By being in it together.
If you’re running a campaign right now and you aren’t doing those things, change what you’re doing.
More on Monday.
As I’ve argued. Democrats have not been saying this stuff for years. 🫣
I am looking forward to reading more!