Labour's Sarah Pallett won the Ilam seat off National's Gerry Brownlee at the 2020 election. Photo: Labour Party / RNZ
The Ilam electorate in Christchurch is swinging back towards National, according the results of the latest Taxpayers' Union - Curia poll.
National's Gerry Brownlee held Ilam from 1996 when the seat was first created until the 2020 election when it went to Labour's Sarah Pallett.
The latest poll found that 33 percent of respondents would be likely to vote for National candidate Hamish Campbell, while 15 percent favoured Labour's incumbent Sarah Pallett.
Pallett came in just ahead of The Opportunities Party (TOP) leader Raf Manji, who 14 percent of respondents chose.
The Greens' Mike Davidson attracted support from 5 percent of respondents, as did ACT, despite the fact that the ACT Party was not standing a candidate in the Ilam electorate.
A total of 23 percent of respondents were either unsure or refused to say how they would vote.
Of those respondents who voted for Brownlee in 2020, 82 percent would now vote for Campbell, 6 percent for Manji, 3 percent for Pallett and 6 percent were undecided.
Forty-one percent of Pallett voters would vote for her again with 13 percent saying they would now vote for Campbell, 22 percent for Manji and 12 percent undecided.
Eighty-five percent of intending National party voters say they will vote for Campbell, 9 percent for Manji with 5 percent undecided.
Eighty-one percent of intending Labour voters say they will vote for Pallett, 7 percent for Manji with 10 percent undecided.
A pathway to power?
Based on recent polling, TOP seems certain to fall short of the 5 percent needed to make it into Parliament, but winning the seat may be a more achievable pathway to the halls of power for Manji.
An electorate victory could also throw off current polls' predictions for the proportion of MPs from each party - and with the numbers between the left and right blocs still fairly close could give Manji significant bargaining power.
Manji's history as a Christchurch City Councillor between 2013 and 2019 and as chair of the Student Volunteer Army Foundation means he has some name recognition in the area, and his policies have promised big benefits for Christchurch.
This poll, however, is one of the first real indications of Manji's chances.
His profile on TOP's website says he "enjoys reading, the cinema, yoga, hiking and [is] an avid Pikachu fan".
The most credible political polls in New Zealand typically survey at least 1000 people, but the Taxpayers' Union - Curia poll surveyed just 400. It is still enough for a statistically significant result, but has a wider margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
