As the fifth 1News Verian poll in a row shows a decrease in support for Labour, Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay says Chris Hipkins "can't catch a break".
The latest numbers have seen support for Labour drop 4% down to 29%, while National has moved up 2% to 37%.
The nearest minor parties have meanwhile seen no losses, ACT going up 1% to 13%, the Greens up 2% to 12%, New Zealand First up 1% to 4%, and Te Pāti Māori remaining steady at 3%.
Labour's numbers today are the lowest the party has polled since Hipkins became the leader in January, and it is the first time it has polled below 30% since 2017, before Andrew Little stood aside for Jacinda Ardern.
In terms of preferred prime minister numbers there is no overwhelming favourite, however it is the most competitive result this election as Luxon remains at 20%, while Hipkins drops 3% to 21%.
McKay said this poll was a "big moment", as it is the first major poll this election with Labour in the 20s and narrowed preference numbers between Hipkins and Luxon.
"Labour are gonna have to dig it in and really fight now, we heard them using the phrase 'underdog', and they're going to be using it over and over again to try and keep their supporters motivated."
She said Labour would have to "grind it out" with Hipkins at the party's helm as, unlike before the 2017 election, there is "no Jacinda Ardern waiting in the wings".
"[Labour MPs] chose him to be the leader at the beginning of the year ... they know they can't have any distractions by talking about anything like that."
On the other side of the aisle, McKay said National can "smell victory" with this poll result, but the spotlight will be intensified on likely policies under a potential National-ACT government.
"Now [National is] seen as a contender with the support of ACT ... people will be asking what a National and ACT government will look like," she said.
"They know they can't have any policy botch-ups, they can't have any missteps, because otherwise that support will start to leak and start to bleed into some of those smaller parties where people are looking for a political home."
In terms of minor parties, McKay said the numbers were important for figures such as New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters who want to tap into the "wasted vote" and "disillusioned voters".
"[Peters] is a very experienced politician ... he knows voters are perhaps feeling a bit scared and also knows those hot button issues to push to try and get attention in an election campaign.
New Zealand First have climbed to 4% in the polls, just 1% shy of the threshold needed to get a seat in Parliament.
"On the other side, this poll for a party like TOP is tough, because when you're only getting 1% in our poll, it's harder to sell that to voters."
Party vote
National - 37% (up 2%)
Labour - 29% (down 4%)
ACT - 13% (up 1%)
Green - 12% (up 2%)
New Zealand First - 4% (up 1%)
Te Pāti Māori - 3% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand - 1% (steady)
The Opportunities Party - 1% (down 1%)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party - 1% (up 1%)
Don’t know / refused to answer - 12% (steady)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki for Te Pāti Māori:
National - 48 seats
Labour - 37 seats
ACT - 17 seats
Green - 15 seats
Te Pāti Māori - 3 seats
See the full poll results and methodology here.
Between August 12 and August 16, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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