Analysis: Labour's announcement to begin a "journey" towards free dental care is likely not the election saver the party hoped it would be, writes 1News digital political reporter Felix Desmarais.
Like plaque, bad polls can stick. You need to brush them away, and reframe and recharge the narrative.
If not, the story spirals out of control. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as voters haemorrhage away. It's human nature to want to back a winner.
Sometimes, no amount of laughing gas can numb the poll pain. Sometimes you need stronger stuff.
Today, Labour pledged to begin a phased approach to free dental care for under 30s if re-elected.
It would cost $390 million over four years and would begin in July 2025.
Check out its first line of its press release on the policy:
"A Labour Government will begin New Zealand’s journey to universal dental care by expanding free basic dental care to nearly 800,000 under 30-year-olds."
'Begin New Zealand's journey'?
'Universal', too - for under 30-year-olds. So not universal.
It goes on to say "successive Labour governments" would expand today's commitment based on workforce, healthcare capacity and fiscal settings.
Part of its cost of living policy, it would not take full effect until July 2026. Labour said that's to allow time for it to work. It "needs to be carefully designed,” health spokeswoman Ayesha Verrall said.
How we say things says a lot, and the halting, caveat-filled language permeating the policy's release is probably not going to capture hearts and minds.
Free dental would likely make a massive difference to many New Zealanders, even if only for under 30s. It is also massively expensive. Labour says it will invest the $360 million required over four years through future Budgets.
Labour has been criticised regularly for increased spending driving up inflation, in turn making hard times harder for New Zealanders - at least, that's what National and ACT say.
Notably the Greens have already floated the idea of (actual) universal dental care - and they have a way to pay for it - the politically-charged wealth tax. Labour leader Chris Hipkins, ever the ardent pragmatist, ruled that out to shut down an attack line from National.
So with Labour in the 20s in the last 1News Verian poll - and other polls pointing to a downward trend - the party battling for its third term in government has announced a watered-down version of a Green Party policy, that will take three years to properly take effect and will be funded from the operating allowance.
ACT today took aim at the policy, saying it was Grant Robertson trying to re-capture the 2005 election, where Labour snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a last-minute Hail Mary: interest-free student loans.
(Grant Robertson was at the time a Labour Party staffer and usually attributed with the idea.)
National had surged in the polls but the policy is believed to have resurrected Labour's electoral chances and secured it its third term.
ACT called today's pledge a desperate bribe, but at least this is something Labour can now hang its hat on and sell to the electorate.
If this was indeed Labour's big swing for victory, if it doesn't capture imaginations, it could just lead to more cavities.
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