New Zealand’s Labour party is polling at its worst levels in 6 years, with prime minister Chris Hipkins saying they are now “underdogs” in the upcoming election.
If the results of the poll were repeated at the election, the left block would lose its large electoral majority, while also reducing the diversity of New Zealand’s parliament and replacing the gender parity currently held with a male majority.
Labour won the 2020 election under Jacinda Ardern with an electoral majority – a rarity in New Zealand’s coalition-based politics – but is now polling below 30%, driven down by economic headwinds and a series of ministerial scandals.
The new TVNZ-Verian poll, released on Monday night, placed the centre-right National party on 37%, up two percentage points, and Labour on 29%, down four.
It was Labour’s worst result in the Verian poll in about 6 years.
The libertarian-right Act party was polling on 13%, giving the right bloc enough seats to govern in coalition. The Greens were at 12%, up two points.
Speaking to media on Tuesday, prime minister Hipkins said Labour were now “underdogs” in the election, but he still believed the party could win. “We are going to give it everything we’ve got this election, there’s too much on the line. Kiwis love to back an underdog, and they love a comeback even more,” he said.
Hipkins’ personal popularity remained just ahead of his rival: down 3 points to 21% compared to National leader Christopher Luxon’s 20%.
The 2020 election gave New Zealand its most diverse parliament in history, boosting the portion of women, LGBTQ+, Māori and immigrant MPs. Last year, New Zealand hit a historic majority of female MPs for the first time, with 61 women in the 120-member house.
Analysis conducted by AAP of the likely makeup of MPs based on the current polling averages found that the proportion of women in parliament would probably drop to about 41%. The proportion of women making up the governing National party’s seats would be under 30%.
Under Labour, women currently make up 56% of the party room – but due to their lower placement on the party’s electoral list, the portion of women entering parliament for Labour was also projected to drop, down to 53%.
Wire services contributed to this report