Analysis: Ruling out working with Winston Peters might have helped Christopher Luxon a few months ago. But that’s no longer the case, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
Recent polling trends suggest the likelihood of a Labour-led government emerging from the ruins of this tetchy election campaign are diminishing by the day.
Chris Hipkins did not meaningfully shift the dial in Tuesday’s leaders’ debate. There have been no game-changing moments for any parties in the campaign so far.
Overseas voting begins next Wednesday and although we’re unlikely to see a statistically significant number of voters cast ballots until early voting opens on October 2, there is already a sense of inertia to the contest and the polls.
At this point, perhaps the subject of greatest speculation is not which party will win the most votes and likely lead the next government, but what the shape and nature of the government’s support agreements are likely to be.
The latest 1News Verian poll shows National in a position to form a government with ACT alone.
But between them, the parties would only have 61 seats, a narrow majority for any Prime Minister seeking stability with which to govern.
A puff of wind and a couple of points either way, and National could find itself relying on New Zealand First in a three-way support deal to form the next government.
In May, I wrote that ruling out Winston Peters could help Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister.
But in the three months since, the equation has flipped.
Back then, polling showed New Zealand First consistently falling short of the 5% threshold. With no seats allocated to New Zealand First, the so-called left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) had 58 seats between them. National and ACT had 62.
The theory dictated that if Luxon were to deferentially and respectfully rule out New Zealand First (an act that would require considerable tact), then New Zealand First’s supporters might abandon their party for one more likely to make it into parliament.
Luxon could have sucked energy out of New Zealand First’s campaign before it had really started. And in choosing who to back between the right and left blocs in lieu of voting for New Zealand First, those supporters would be more likely to vote National or ACT.
But the numbers have changed.
Three months on, polls suggest New Zealand First now does have sufficient support to make it into parliament.
Labour and New Zealand First have ruled out working with each other in government, but support for the left bloc has dropped away. From the 58 seats they would have won between them three months ago, this week’s 1News Verian poll showed Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori with five fewer places in parliament.
Now is not the time to reveal cards
So, what would be the upside for Christopher Luxon in ruling out working with Winston Peters?
Apart from maybe quelling any voter concerns about a potential ‘coalition of chaos’, there’s none. Zilch. There is no benefit to National, whatsoever.
Currently there is no evidence that concerns over the stability of a three-party National-led government are damaging National’s support and even though ACT leader David Seymour has been frank in his contempt for Peters, even he reluctantly admits that ACT and New Zealand First might have to make it work.
Luxon has said throughout the campaign that he’d make a call on working with Peters when New Zealand First was at 5% in the polls. But I expect he’ll continue to equivocate.
When the contest was closer between the left and right blocs and New Zealand First looked less likely to end up in parliament, it made some strategic sense to rule out a party whose supporters were likely inclined to switch to National or ACT instead.
Now, not so much.
Christopher Luxon might as well keep all his cards up his sleeve.
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